tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-96199632024-03-07T14:44:53.772-08:00W.C. VaronesSomeday the mountain might get him but the law never willW.C. Varoneshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17663570682958847976noreply@blogger.comBlogger5543125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9619963.post-23337317686460044772024-03-05T07:24:00.000-08:002024-03-05T07:24:30.051-08:00Happy Super Tuesday!<iframe width="460" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/5AeO-dKGBLs?si=67NokQrleBfaAtFK" title="YouTube video player" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen></iframe>W.C. Varoneshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17663570682958847976noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9619963.post-71049019010557427702023-08-04T05:59:00.001-07:002023-08-04T05:59:23.387-07:00CalPERS FailDespite the awesome bull market this year, CalPERS <a href="https://www.calpers.ca.gov/page/newsroom/calpers-news/2023/calpers-preliminary-investment-return-fiscal-year-2022-23#:~:text=CalPERS%20Reports%20Preliminary%205.8%25%20Investment%20Return%20for%202022%2D23%20Fiscal%20Year,-July%2019%2C%202023&text=SACRAMENTO%2C%20Calif.,pension%20fund%27s%20leaders%20said%20Wednesday.">again missed its return target, earning only 5.8% vs. its required 6.8%.</a>
<br><br>
CalPERS has missed its return targets for the trailing <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1n97rLzpRW3pNXjCL-zDLanWh0HfVN0aUtlFQsii-AMY/edit?pli=1#gid=0">1-, 3-, 5-, 15-, and 20-year periods</a>.
<br><br>
When CalPERS fails to make its' required returns, California taxpayers are liable for making up the difference for California's uber-generous public pensions.W.C. Varoneshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17663570682958847976noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9619963.post-60752131579460725762023-02-03T19:04:00.001-08:002023-02-03T19:04:10.629-08:00Maybe teaching racial division and hatred wasn't such a good idea after all<a href="https://torontosun.com/news/world/doctor-cycling-in-california-run-down-stabbed-by-driver-screaming-about-white-privilege">Doctor cycling in California run down, stabbed by driver screaming about ‘white privilege’</a>:
<blockquote>A doctor cycling along the Pacific Coast Highway in California was mowed down by a driver who then got out of his vehicle and stabbed the cyclist to death while screaming ‘white privilege’ slurs.
<br /><br />
Dr. Michael Mammone, 58, of Laguna Beach, was on his bike in Dana Point when he was struck by the driver of a white Lexus.
<br /><br />
The driver allegedly sped through a red light at an intersection before running over Mammone on Wednesday afternoon, KABC reported.
<br /><br />
He then jumped out of his vehicle and stabbed the victim multiple times in the back before bystanders tackled him to stop the attack.</blockquote>W.C. Varoneshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17663570682958847976noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9619963.post-74880434061986375252022-09-01T09:51:00.003-07:002022-09-01T16:31:22.731-07:00Mmmkay....<a href="https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1565331206547415040">President who usurped Congressional spending authority to issue an executive order handing out hundreds of billions of dollars right before an election will lecture nation on "threats to democracy."</a>W.C. Varoneshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17663570682958847976noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9619963.post-2312863367194043002022-07-20T13:02:00.004-07:002022-07-20T16:08:43.838-07:00Seems legit<p><a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/calpers-reports-6-1-loss-for-its-fiscal-year-11658339033?page=1">WSJ</a>:</p>
<blockquote>Calpers’ stock portfolio returned minus 13.1%, while bonds returned minus 14.5%, the pension fund said. Those losses delivered a double blow for retirement funds and other savers who have long relied on those two assets to move in opposite directions.
<br /><br />
Private equity and real estate returned 21.3% and 24.1%, respectively. </blockquote>
It's a CalPERS miracle! <div><br /></div><div>Everything with observable market prices went down, but everything CalPERS values subjectively went up! By double digits!</div>W.C. Varoneshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17663570682958847976noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9619963.post-75055082239942912822022-04-23T08:30:00.001-07:002022-04-23T08:30:31.964-07:00Quotations from Chairman Varones<p> Inflation is progressive utopians encountering resource constraints for the first time.</p>W.C. Varoneshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17663570682958847976noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9619963.post-70625237090239473412022-04-08T21:03:00.004-07:002022-04-14T10:41:09.961-07:00Taxable brokerage vs. traditional 401(k) account<p>The common wisdom says pre-tax 401(k)s and IRAs beat taxable accounts hands-down. But it's not so clear to me. If you put buy-and-hold stocks or index funds in a taxable brokerage account, it's actually remarkably tax-efficient because of the ability to defer capital gains, and the preferable tax rates on dividends and capital gains.</p><p>Here's a spreadsheet where you can play with the assumptions (you'll have to make a copy for yourself to edit): <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1_BY59eIPJYaYEyOCFQ1XN2hHQU6zWed_u0z95HA7BhE/edit?usp=sharing">link</a>. </p><p>Yes, traditional beats taxable in simplified base case, but this ignores:</p><p></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>tax loss harvesting </li><li>HIFO withdrawals </li><li>foreign tax credits</li><li>higher potential future tax rates</li></ul><div>With the federal government running perpetual deficits of 3% - 5% of GDP, is it really out of the question that tax rates on wealthy retirees could hit 37%? That's about the point where taxable beats pre-tax even before considering HIFO and tax loss harvesting.</div><p></p>W.C. Varoneshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17663570682958847976noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9619963.post-78444524385966760652022-01-10T16:00:00.000-08:002022-01-10T16:00:15.779-08:00AOC has Covid<p><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh3PY2B6cNbwlvQS9RTob8gZLbHvJf_khyZKjcYuZJMt6nb1suJNohW4aA8Rf6xcsvl7_c7sXdi0k8f7V6Wsff0s-YAaJnfdWgN9xCLjrtWt8Nu9Smlkgy4fs5k6doimbaLQlKcnA//" style="clear: left; display: inline !important; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: center;"><img alt="" data-original-height="317" data-original-width="242" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh3PY2B6cNbwlvQS9RTob8gZLbHvJf_khyZKjcYuZJMt6nb1suJNohW4aA8Rf6xcsvl7_c7sXdi0k8f7V6Wsff0s-YAaJnfdWgN9xCLjrtWt8Nu9Smlkgy4fs5k6doimbaLQlKcnA/w305-h400/image.png" width="305" /></a></p><p><br />Anybody else think horse paste might be worth a try?</p><p><br /></p>W.C. Varoneshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17663570682958847976noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9619963.post-10428768264202122942021-10-30T14:47:00.012-07:002022-01-20T08:15:41.824-08:00CDC reached completely unsupported conclusion to downplay natural immunity, support mandates<p>The CDC <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2021/s1029-Vaccination-Offers-Higher-Protection.html">announced</a> a study showing that "vaccination offers higher protection than previous COVID-19 infection." </p><p>The <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7044e1.htm?s_cid=mm7044e1_w">study</a> shows no such thing. In fact, the data considered in the study aren't sufficient to even attempt to make such a conclusion. </p><p>The media <a href="https://news.yahoo.com/vaccine-confers-better-protection-than-natural-immunity-cdc-finds-201511956.html">gleefully and unquestioningly</a> <a href="https://fox8.com/news/coronavirus/covid-vaccine-stronger-than-natural-immunity-new-cdc-study-suggests/">repeated</a> the CDC's nonsense.</p><p>In case I get banned from Twitter for questioning "The Science," here are the <a href="https://twitter.com/wcvarones/status/1454452876449779715">tweets</a>:</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgd2Wk5lEKSPCM2L93S945TdAA2wS-pOnstCodUyoliE_lmFhf4v0yHIgyPn_O62GUz-IECdgMXNfDjMkPa7y65w9hGL0C9sFL9jiscqR4qTxNltRlYfLE8ql_aiSINdHF2c-FF2w/s1207/tweet1.png" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1207" data-original-width="900" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgd2Wk5lEKSPCM2L93S945TdAA2wS-pOnstCodUyoliE_lmFhf4v0yHIgyPn_O62GUz-IECdgMXNfDjMkPa7y65w9hGL0C9sFL9jiscqR4qTxNltRlYfLE8ql_aiSINdHF2c-FF2w/w299-h400/tweet1.png" width="299" /></a></div><br /><p><br /><br /><br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiOetWn3maN-PDTWsPgT-vrAsCrshBeBMhFtguzNLcwpJOFMOA14es7uGuXYfcV0reHle_c1aR4Z0VNv_KMw8_dz-DawVZRgIIC4U48rO3hrRg_gmtrEf9Ha3_lRCuSEowTIWmVVA/s1116/tweet2.png" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1116" data-original-width="942" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiOetWn3maN-PDTWsPgT-vrAsCrshBeBMhFtguzNLcwpJOFMOA14es7uGuXYfcV0reHle_c1aR4Z0VNv_KMw8_dz-DawVZRgIIC4U48rO3hrRg_gmtrEf9Ha3_lRCuSEowTIWmVVA/s320/tweet2.png" width="270" /></a></div><br /><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div>
Bottom line: you can't possibly infer the efficacy of either the vaccine or natural immunity from the ratios of positive to negative tests in two narrowly selected groups that bear no resemblance to each other or the general population. Any high school statistics teacher could tell you that.<br /><br />For example, the vaccinated people skew much older than the recovered in this study. If, as seems obvious, older people tend to go to the hospital more with non-Covid respiratory illnesses than young people do, that would explain this data. Yet the CDC insists this says something about Covid natural immunity instead.<br /><br />Or if some people went to the hospital due to side effects from the vaccine. "See," the CDC claims, "that improves the ratio and proves vaccines are better than natural immunity!"<br /><br />Others have pointed out that the 90-179 day post-vaccination window seems cherry-picked to maximize favorable outcomes for the vaccine, as the Israeli and other studies have shown vaccine efficacy drops off significantly after that period. And others have pointed out the tiny sample size of recovered people who were hospitalized and tested positive (i.e. it's both extremely rare for natural immunity to fail, and it's bad science to try to draw conclusions!). And Thomas Massie <a href="https://twitter.com/RepThomasMassie/status/1454372082557624334">points out that</a> they are counting “long Covid” as re-infections which might very well explain most of the cases in the study!<div><div><br />This is obviously a politically ordered result to support Biden's vaccine mandate push. The fact that they couldn't come up with a supportable conclusion is telling.</div></div><div><br /></div><div><br /><br /><br /><b>UPDATE 1/20/22: </b>The CDC <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/71/wr/mm7104e1.htm">now admits the exact opposite</a> of its absurd claim.</div>W.C. Varoneshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17663570682958847976noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9619963.post-67274196782577548362021-10-08T07:27:00.002-07:002021-10-10T13:37:13.655-07:00More stuff that broke around 1971<p>We've noted <a href="http://www.wcvarones.com/2012/07/its-all-nixons-fault.html">before</a> that a bunch of economic trends turned bad when Nixon closed the gold window and we launched into the current pure fiat experiment: commodity volatility, labor share of productivity gains, wealth inequality, etc.<br /><br />Here's another one courtesy of <a href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2021/10/the-future-is-getting-farther-away.html">Alex Tabarrok at Marginal Revolution</a>: </p><p></p><blockquote>In Launching the Innovation Renaissance I said that “If total factor
productivity had continued to grow at its 1957 to 1973 rate then we
today would be living in the world of 2076 rather than in the world of
2014.” Sadly, the future is continuing to recede. Consider the graph
below. If growth had continued at the rate expected by the CBO in 2005
then we today would be living in the world of 2037 rather than in the
world of 2021. (n.b. I am eyeballing.)</blockquote><p></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgFOeo82ODxc_sYBEgQxYpmL4NBQ0DyExN9MaXC1qaJfi_C6P79wmCayEE4i8V8e1dg9VVBHFDn0vBXCwb-4MxNmpr_Z2W1IZG1AQL02b3ixrfQwwURE_qZDuObRqTWEp17h51wzg//" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="567" data-original-width="913" height="249" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgFOeo82ODxc_sYBEgQxYpmL4NBQ0DyExN9MaXC1qaJfi_C6P79wmCayEE4i8V8e1dg9VVBHFDn0vBXCwb-4MxNmpr_Z2W1IZG1AQL02b3ixrfQwwURE_qZDuObRqTWEp17h51wzg/w400-h249/SahmGraph.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><br /><br /><p></p><div><div class="comment-content">
<p>Interesting that the break in productivity growth happened at the time we went off the gold standard.</p>
<p>Is there a causal relationship either way? Did we stop becoming
productive because it was easy to get rich buying levered assets with a
depreciating currency? Or did we devalue the currency because we ran out
of productivity growth?</p><p><b>UPDATE:</b> <a href="https://fee.org/articles/what-happened-in-1971-edward-snowden-and-jack-dorsey-want-to-know/?utm_medium=related_widget">Edward Snowden and Jack Dorsey</a> are noticing too. And there's a web site dedicated to it: <a href="http://wtfhappenedin1971.com">wtfhappenedin1971.com</a></p></div></div>W.C. Varoneshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17663570682958847976noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9619963.post-4775910149430501942021-10-03T07:33:00.008-07:002021-10-03T07:43:47.046-07:00Rand Paul educates Javier Baccaria on the science<div><br /></div>"Senator, I'd have to get back to you on that one. I'm not familiar with that study."<div><br /></div><div>
<br />
<iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/MI_Dm3pj3dQ" title="YouTube video player" width="460"></iframe></div>W.C. Varoneshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17663570682958847976noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9619963.post-28064975620803079982021-09-05T14:29:00.001-07:002021-09-05T15:53:44.392-07:00WTF? The Padres want dick pics?<p class="mobile-photo"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiTVurvXPvcil3qacRkT8BEuK5brJPodcrsH3VwnAq_AA4PzLZ5LSUPyLrmRpCja1gvuc8TbqLhUUXp_KHYAxCZbmGDwglQPoxkxx-SgxubAXJaomPBpuTGLZDwIpZJ1bdTMHbWhA/s1600/IMG_8323-781197.jpg"><img src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiTVurvXPvcil3qacRkT8BEuK5brJPodcrsH3VwnAq_AA4PzLZ5LSUPyLrmRpCja1gvuc8TbqLhUUXp_KHYAxCZbmGDwglQPoxkxx-SgxubAXJaomPBpuTGLZDwIpZJ1bdTMHbWhA/s320/IMG_8323-781197.jpg" border="0" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_7004565018671475026" /></a></p>W.C. Varoneshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17663570682958847976noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9619963.post-50097029147902096182021-07-08T15:14:00.001-07:002021-07-08T15:14:14.202-07:00Milestones <p>I talk a lot about inflation.</p><p><br /></p><p>But today was the first time in my life I actually used a dollar bill as toilet paper.</p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p>W.C. Varoneshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17663570682958847976noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9619963.post-37452605271594229342021-07-01T10:23:00.001-07:002021-07-01T10:42:04.415-07:00Stocks for the long-run inflation!<p> <a href="https://www.mauldineconomics.com/the-10th-man/its-not-the-seventies">Jared Dillian at Mauldin Economics</a>:</p>
<blockquote>I get this a lot. People say, “We are experiencing inflation, so stocks should go down! Because that’s what happened in the 1970s.”
<br /><br />
This isn’t the 1970s. This is a different sort of inflation.
<br /><br />
What we are experiencing now is a monetary inflation, compounded by big government interventions in the labor market. This is not stagflation.
<br /><br />
In fact, the period of stagflation that we experienced in the 1970s was an anomaly, as far as great inflations go, and isn’t likely to be repeated.
<br /><br />
If you’ve been shorting stocks in advance of CPI numbers, and you’re not broke already, you will be soon. Inflation benefits stocks. Stocks are <i>inflation pass-thru vehicles</i>, though most people realize that by now.
<br /><br />
In fact, stocks have been a better inflation hedge (so far) than gold, which has seen a lot of outflows to cryptocurrencies. This is why I’ve been increasing my allocation to equities and real estate and decreasing it elsewhere.</blockquote>
This is something I've felt intuitively, but haven't really had a good answer when people have said stocks historically aren't good inflation hedges. It's all about the 70's being the only inflation in recent memory!<div>
<br />As for the other period I've been comparing the current fiscal situation to, the years after WWII, it's true that during the worst inflation year, 1946, stocks were down. But over the full inflation cycle, from 1946 through 1951, stocks did quite well. The S&P returned a nominal 13% annually including dividends, well outpacing inflation.<br />
</div><div><br /></div><div>I like Dillian's description of stocks as "inflation pass-thru vehicles." This is what I was getting at back in <a href="http://www.wcvarones.com/2008/11/navigating-depression-investor-edition.html">2008</a>:<br /><blockquote>Do you buy the Treasury bond that will be destroyed with inflation, or do you buy the chip stock whose products, assets, and dividends will rise with inflation?</blockquote></div>
That semiconductor stock is up more than 300% since then. Its dividend has increased 148%, and your yield on cost from 2008 would now be 6.5%. Meanwhile bonds as represented by the Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF ($BND), are up less than 13% in price and yield less than 2%.W.C. Varoneshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17663570682958847976noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9619963.post-68849247154386570152021-06-28T07:33:00.003-07:002021-06-28T07:33:35.698-07:00Crypto thoughtsI can't tell you anything about the technology, but here's an investor's simplistic view.
<div><br /></div><div>- Everybody should own a little crypto, maybe 1% - 3% of your financial assets.</div><div><br /></div><div>- Bitcoin and Ethereum are the only two legit cryptos at the moment. That could easily change in the future, but for now I'm not messing with the others.<br /><br />- PayPal is the easiest way for newbies to get started buying crypto, followed by Coinbase. For exposure in IRAs and other brokerage accounts, GBTC and ETHE will work.</div><div><br /></div><div>- When an asset is this volatile, you should be thinking dollar-cost averaging. I'm making small weekly automatic purchases in Coinbase.<br /><br />- I really like the idea behind the Simplify US Equity Plus GBTC ETF (ticker: SPBC). It's the S&P plus 10% bitcoin ETF, and it rebalances quarterly, meaning you're taking advantage of the volatility and buying low, selling high.</div>W.C. Varoneshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17663570682958847976noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9619963.post-4178988660254354262021-02-20T07:27:00.005-08:002021-02-20T07:27:24.046-08:00ParallelsMake new friends<br>
But keep the old<br>
One is Ether<br>
And the other is Bitcoin<br>W.C. Varoneshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17663570682958847976noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9619963.post-1552076036946872392021-01-11T07:16:00.005-08:002021-01-11T07:34:41.306-08:00Democrats plan to repeal state and local tax (SALT) deduction limitsDemocrats are talking about repealing the SALT limits. What nobody's talking about is that SALT is largely irrelevant to the middle class. A SALT repeal only helps the rich. And it's a lot of money. <div><br /></div><div>The middle class being largely untouched by SALT limits is due to two main factors. First, <a href="https://www.taxpolicycenter.org/briefing-book/how-did-tcja-change-standard-deduction-and-itemized-deductions#:~:text=The%20Tax%20Cuts%20and%20Jobs%20Act%20(TCJA)%20increased%20the%20standard,are%20indexed%20annually%20for%20inflation.">the large increase in the standard deduction</a>. You need a lot of deductions to get over the $24,000 standard deduction. Yes, you can get there pretty easily with a huge mortgage and high state taxes. But then there's the AMT. The Alternative Minimum Tax <i>already didn't allow</i> SALT deductions, and upper-middle-income people in high-tax states were the people most affected by AMT. If you were previously paying AMT, the Trump SALT limits are irrelevant to you. Tax reform <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/04/after-tax-changes-millions-of-households-avoided-amt-hit-last-year.html">effectively eliminated AMT for almost everyone</a>.<br /><br />Here are <a href="http://encinitasundercover.blogspot.com/2017/12/what-tax-reform-means-for-encinitas.html">some hypothetical examples</a> of how SALT limits and tax reform affected people in a high-tax, high-property-value, blue state city.</div><div><br />Will the Democrats really repeal SALT limits for the rich, just to let the middle class fall back into AMT?</div>W.C. Varoneshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17663570682958847976noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9619963.post-55985369043563078762021-01-02T08:38:00.000-08:002021-01-02T08:38:12.321-08:00San Diego County's idiot health department says it will vaccinate children before middle-aged adults<p>Without government, who would hire the incompetent people?<br /><br /><a href="https://www.sandiegocounty.gov/content/sdc/hhsa/programs/phs/community_epidemiology/dc/2019-nCoV/vaccines/phases.html">San Diego County Health web site</a>:</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEguuCN4pKXiL8GA_AnlZK_dzT6yANtc4nLh0G4prkF-DWWJWoDj3Hq8zCRgVxR2Pk7zY_iB6gtAiL5ioTuTqoHRSCd5gS3WfDLKZs57KH3_q0X3lP1QWOk2OHig7mGqTdfpF6KxPQ/s744/phase1b.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="272" data-original-width="744" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEguuCN4pKXiL8GA_AnlZK_dzT6yANtc4nLh0G4prkF-DWWJWoDj3Hq8zCRgVxR2Pk7zY_iB6gtAiL5ioTuTqoHRSCd5gS3WfDLKZs57KH3_q0X3lP1QWOk2OHig7mGqTdfpF6KxPQ/s320/phase1b.JPG" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p>It's anyone's guess where the incompetence lies: the people establishing the vaccination phases or the people posting them on the web site.<br /><br /></p>W.C. Varoneshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17663570682958847976noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9619963.post-88892938341834178232020-12-30T18:09:00.001-08:002020-12-30T18:09:15.966-08:00Zuckerberg cornhole game<p> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhbP8SVgyQGUnDxmvafwj5qnw0QqKEPkeba-EMN-fcMGVWVCHHZM2P4wRdFCSkKG0aIyOxlt260F4P9Tn1nmj_NN65kkhXFGKZ4hKErac1YDs0G0g8XMG64cT3KUnykMVAcr6VN0w//" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="261" data-original-width="505" height="165" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhbP8SVgyQGUnDxmvafwj5qnw0QqKEPkeba-EMN-fcMGVWVCHHZM2P4wRdFCSkKG0aIyOxlt260F4P9Tn1nmj_NN65kkhXFGKZ4hKErac1YDs0G0g8XMG64cT3KUnykMVAcr6VN0w//" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p></p>W.C. Varoneshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17663570682958847976noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9619963.post-65183663177505503112020-12-28T10:26:00.005-08:002020-12-28T10:26:57.043-08:00Happy Taint Week!'t ain't still Christmas, but 't ain't yet New Year's!W.C. Varoneshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17663570682958847976noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9619963.post-55067234159203139962020-11-15T18:01:00.002-08:002020-11-15T18:21:48.834-08:00Socialism is like a pot luck<p> The latest product of the American public education system, I presume:<br /><br /><span> </span><span> <br /></span></p><blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><a href="https://twitter.com/fireman452a/status/1327731258311360512?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw"></a></blockquote> <script async="" charset="utf-8" src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script>
Sure, socialism is just like a pot luck.
<br />
<div><br />You would have enjoyed the way they did pot lucks in Cambodia. You could call it a Pol Pot luck.</div>W.C. Varoneshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17663570682958847976noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9619963.post-53073768388636051702020-08-10T21:18:00.001-07:002020-08-10T21:18:31.502-07:00Exodus! Movement of Jah people!<p><a href="https://www.battleswarmblog.com/?p=45297&fbclid=IwAR2D9uDYVGe32NmGpBCs8pIzeFXY6cByfYeFxu3f58YNMDL0laSFBbMXOpY"> Joe Rogan is yet another multimillionaire fleeing California’s insanity.</a></p><p>Who’s going to be left to pay the bills?</p>W.C. Varoneshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17663570682958847976noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9619963.post-64707599497630333792020-07-24T11:43:00.001-07:002020-07-24T11:43:48.204-07:00More academic malpractice against goldThis is just pathetic.<br />
<br />
<a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/a-golden-rule-from-a-golden-fool-11595599207">WSJ</a>:<br />
<blockquote>
Gold is, in fact, a poor hedge against inflation. Accounting for changes in the cost of living, gold has returned an average of minus 0.4% annually since 1980, versus positive annualized returns of 7.9% for U.S. stocks, 6.2% for U.S. bonds and 1.2% for cash, according to Prof. Spaenjers.</blockquote>
1980, you say? I wonder how Prof. Spaenjers chose that starting point.<br />
<br />
Oh, this.<br />
<br />
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj4xiJV9DvxkWvsTC4KbuIJcRZZUgr9c9KRoyieHSVzd7vpjhHkYAA-UUQMx9luogqoQCo95SbQY6BxUnCM_bIfQxexEYzPDDO6soGp_5ZdfhEp30wgSFLxUw1pItGFZZkv_OuNgQ/s1600/chartcrime.png" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" data-original-height="792" data-original-width="943" height="336" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj4xiJV9DvxkWvsTC4KbuIJcRZZUgr9c9KRoyieHSVzd7vpjhHkYAA-UUQMx9luogqoQCo95SbQY6BxUnCM_bIfQxexEYzPDDO6soGp_5ZdfhEp30wgSFLxUw1pItGFZZkv_OuNgQ/s400/chartcrime.png" width="400" /></a><br />
<br />
<br />
Of course you can make returns look bad if you cherry-pick the absolute worst starting point!<br />
<br />
Anyone making an honest inquiry would find that not only does gold have pretty good returns, but also <a href="https://www.wcvarones.com/2011/10/gold-and-asset-allocation-less-risk.html">excellent diversification properties</a>.W.C. Varoneshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17663570682958847976noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9619963.post-18276609225065850142020-03-20T05:30:00.000-07:002020-03-20T05:46:35.358-07:00Gavin Newsom's executive order contradicts his public statementsGavin Newsom's insane new <a href="https://covid19.ca.gov/img/Executive-Order-N-33-20.pdf">executive order</a> commands Californians to stay in their homes "until further notice" "except as needed to maintain continuity of operations of the federal critical infrastructure sectors, as outlined at <a href="https://www.cisa.gov/identifying-critical-infrastructure-during-covid-19.">https://www.cisa.gov/identifying-critical-infrastructure-during-covid-19.</a>"<br />
<br />
There is absolutely no exception for going for a walk or run or bike ride to get exercise and fresh air. But trips to the drug store, food store, and even to get restaurant take-out are allowed because food supply and other necessities fall under the critical infrastructure exception.<br />
<br />
That's crazy. If you want to go out for a walk alone for exercise, you have to crowd into a store as a pretense! This idiot is going to cause people to spread Coronavirus more!<br />
<br />
Fortunately, Newsom's public statements indicate that he didn't read or understand what he signed. <a href="https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/news/california/story/2020-03-19/gavin-newsom-california-1-billion-federal-aid-coronavirus">Union-Tribune</a>: <br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Newsom asked Californians to practice social distancing when performing such “necessary activities.”<br />
<br />
“We’re going to keep the grocery stores open,” he said. “We’re going to make sure that you’re getting critical medical supplies. You can still take your kids outside, practicing common sense and social distancing. You can still walk your dog.”</blockquote>
In this age of government by morons, I'm going to assume the more lenient of the conflicting statements wins.W.C. Varoneshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17663570682958847976noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9619963.post-49757427184789274212020-02-15T07:55:00.000-08:002020-02-15T07:59:25.890-08:00White House considering new tax-deferred accounts to encourage investing<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/14/white-house-considering-tax-incentive-for-more-americans-to-buy-stocks.html">CNBC</a>:<br />
<blockquote>
As part of a forthcoming package of proposed tax cuts, the White House is considering ways to incentivize U.S. households to invest in the stock market, according to four senior administration officials familiar with the discussions.<br />
<br />
The proposal, one of many new tax cuts under consideration, would see a portion of household income treated as tax-free for the purposes of investing outside a traditional 401(k). Under one hypothetical scenario described by multiple officials, a household earning up to $200,000 could invest $10,000 of that income on a tax-free basis, although officials noted these numbers are fluid.</blockquote>
CNBC's Kayla Tausche, like her colleague <a href="http://www.wcvarones.com/2013/02/cnbcs-brian-sullivan-is-blithering-idiot.html">Brian Sullivan</a>, is a blithering idiot:<br />
<blockquote>
Money put into the account would be done so on an after-tax basis, and taxed when withdrawn as well; but any accumulation of profits during the investment timeframe, known as capital gains, would not be taxed.</blockquote>
No, an accumulation of profits is not "known as capital gains." The accumulation of profits comes from both dividends and capital appreciation. Capital gains are taxed only when a position is sold. Tausche doesn't mention how dividends are treated, though they make up the vast majority of the "accumulation of profits" for low-turnover investors.<br />
<br />
The proposed accounts arguably aren't of much value. Capital gains are already deferred for buy-and-hold investors. And even realized capital gains and dividends are taxed at low rates. Being taxed at ordinary income rates upon withdrawal will likely make these accounts a worse deal than just buying index funds or ETFs in a taxable account. Which, by the way, <a href="http://www.wcvarones.com/2020/02/wc-varones-two-maxims-of-personal.html">you should already be doing</a>.<br />
<br />W.C. Varoneshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17663570682958847976noreply@blogger.com0