12.14.2009

Five-year anniversary -- and Richard Lees Capital Management still hasn't apologized

Happy anniversary, everybody! We've been at it for five years here!

Here's the post that got it all started:
Talk about the pot calling the kettle black. Richard Lees of Richard Lees Capital Management insults market commentators and professional investors, calling them "gridiots," "so-called pro's," and the "wRONg Insana crowd" for disagreeing with him on monetary policy or the market.

Meanwhile, he creates a shockingly incorrect graph by entering the exchange rates upside down:

As the US dollar has fallen since mid-2002, foreign investors in US-dollar-based assets have lost money. So even though the S&P 500 has rebounded 40-50% in dollar terms, Europeans have lost much of those gains as the dollar has lost 30-40% against the Euro. Richard, however, appears to have entered the numbers wrong in his charting software, with the result that Euro-based investors look like they gained, rather than lost, from this currency movement.

This erroneous graph then becomes the basis for a long diatribe. In between boasts of his past brilliant market calls, he raves:

"No one has fared better in the rise of the S&P since the lows of 2002 than those whose stake has been funded in Euro’s [sic].... In fact, in Euro terms -- and only in Euro terms -- the US stock market has now gone to an all time high even higher than the Y2K high!"

As the great John McLaughlin would say, "WRONG!!!"

It takes some kind of investment pro to believe that European investors who buy US dollar-based assets profit as the dollar falls. It's bad enough that he doesn't know how to use his charting software. But anyone with the most basic understanding of finance should realize how wrong this chart is before publishing a smug 1200-word essay that relies on it. This guy is actually in the investment business with other people's money?!?

I'm not going to put a lot of weight on this guy's endorsement of Greenspan.

UPDATE (12/15): The column has been heavily edited, without comment. Gone are the graph, much of the text, and most of the braggadocio and name-calling.

How the Greenspan stole Christmas

WSJ:
As a longtime Santa Claus at a suburban Chicago mall, Rod Riemersma used to jokingly tell children they would get socks for Christmas if they were naughty.

This year, he stopped telling the joke. Too many children were asking for socks.

LA Times: cost-cutting ObamaCare universal coverage will raise costs and leave 24 million Americans uninsured

When you've lost the L.A Times...

Nelson



So Lieberman is officially off the reservation. That can be overcome by picking up a RINO like one of the Bangor Sisters.

But how do you overcome the loss of the Nelson twins?

12.13.2009

Copenhagen and Totalitarianism

For anyone who missed it, here is part of the brilliant WSJ piece from Dec 8, 2009, on the mentality of totalitarians, of the blindly devoted Copenhagen attendees, and of manipulative power-grabbers.
Still, the really interesting question is less about the facts than it is about the psychology. Last week, I suggested that funding flows had much to do with climate alarmism. But deeper things are at work as well.

One of those things, I suspect, is what I would call the totalitarian impulse. This is not to say that global warming true believers are closet Stalinists. But their intellectual methods are instructively similar. Consider:

Revolutionary fervor: There's a distinct tendency among climate alarmists toward uncompromising radicalism, a hatred of "bourgeois" values, a disgust with democratic practices. So President Obama wants to cut U.S. greenhouse gas emissions by 83% from current levels by 2050, levels not seen since the 1870s—in effect, the Industrial Revolution in reverse. Rajendra Pachauri, head of the U.N.'s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, insists that "our lifestyles are unsustainable." Al Gore gets crowds going by insisting that "civil disobedience has a role to play" in strong-arming governments to do his bidding. (This from the man who once sought to preserve, protect and defend the Constitution.)

Utopianism: In the world as it is, climate alarmists see humanity hurtling toward certain doom. In the world as it might be, humanity has seen the light and changed its patterns of behavior, becoming the green equivalent of the Soviet "new man." At his disposal are technologies that defy the laws of thermodynamics. The problems now attributed to global warming abate or disappear.

Anti-humanism: In his 2007 best seller "The World Without Us," environmentalist Alan Weisman considers what the planet would be like without mankind, and finds it's no bad thing. The U.N. Population Fund complains in a recent report that "no human is genuinely 'carbon neutral'"—its latest argument against children. John Holdren, President Obama's science adviser, cut his teeth in the policy world as an overpopulation obsessive worried about global cooling. But whether warming or cooling, the problem for the climate alarmists, as for other totalitarians, always seems to boil down to the human race itself.

Intolerance: Why did the scientists at the heart of Climategate go to such lengths to hide or massage the data if truth needs no defense? Why launch campaigns of obstruction and vilification against gadfly Canadian researchers Stephen McIntyre and Ross McKitrick if they were such intellectual laughingstocks? It is the unvarying habit of the totalitarian mind to treat any manner of disagreement as prima facie evidence of bad faith and treason.

Monocausalism: For the anti-Semite, the problems of the world can invariably be ascribed to the Jews; for the Communist, to the capitalists. And as the list above suggests, global warming has become the fill-in-the-blank explanation for whatever happens to be the problem.

Indifference to evidence: Climate alarmists have become brilliantly adept at changing their terms to suit their convenience. So it's "global warming" when there's a heat wave, but it's "climate change" when there's a cold snap. The earth has registered no discernable warming in the past 10 years: Very well then, they say, natural variability must be the cause. But as for the warming that did occur in the 1980s and 1990s, that plainly was evidence of man-made warming. Am I missing something here?

Grandiosity: In "SuperFreakonomics," Steve Levitt and Stephen Dubner give favorable treatment to an idea to cool the earth by pumping sulfur dioxide into the upper atmosphere, something that could be done cheaply and quickly. Maybe it would work, or maybe it wouldn't. But one suspects that the main reason the chapter was the subject of hysterical criticism is that it didn't propose to deal with global warming by re-engineering the world economy. The penchant for monumentalism is yet another constant feature of the totalitarian mind.

Today, of course, the very idea of totalitarianism is considered passé. Yet the course of the 20th century was defined by totalitarian regimes, and it would be dangerous to assume that the habits of mind that sustained them have vanished into the mists. In Copenhagen, they are once again at play—and that, comrades, is no accident.

Write to bstephens@wsj.com

Always striving for more

Obama smashes his personal record for public disapproval:
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Sunday shows that 23% of the nation's voters Strongly Approve of the way that Barack Obama is performing his role as President. Forty-two percent (42%) Strongly Disapprove giving Obama a Presidential Approval Index rating of -19.

Today is the second straight day that Obama’s Approval Index rating has fallen to a new low. Prior to the past two days, the Approval Index had never fallen below -15 during Obama’s time in office.


Why does America keep winning?

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