Calpers’ stock portfolio returned minus 13.1%, while bonds returned minus 14.5%, the pension fund said. Those losses delivered a double blow for retirement funds and other savers who have long relied on those two assets to move in opposite directions.It's a CalPERS miracle!
Private equity and real estate returned 21.3% and 24.1%, respectively.
The common wisdom says pre-tax 401(k)s and IRAs beat taxable accounts hands-down. But it's not so clear to me. If you put buy-and-hold stocks or index funds in a taxable brokerage account, it's actually remarkably tax-efficient because of the ability to defer capital gains, and the preferable tax rates on dividends and capital gains.
Here's a spreadsheet where you can play with the assumptions (you'll have to make a copy for yourself to edit): link.
Yes, traditional beats taxable in simplified base case, but this ignores:
- tax loss harvesting
- HIFO withdrawals
- foreign tax credits
- higher potential future tax rates
The CDC announced a study showing that "vaccination offers higher protection than previous COVID-19 infection."
The study shows no such thing. In fact, the data considered in the study aren't sufficient to even attempt to make such a conclusion.
In case I get banned from Twitter for questioning "The Science," here are the tweets:
For example, the vaccinated people skew much older than the recovered in this study. If, as seems obvious, older people tend to go to the hospital more with non-Covid respiratory illnesses than young people do, that would explain this data. Yet the CDC insists this says something about Covid natural immunity instead.
Or if some people went to the hospital due to side effects from the vaccine. "See," the CDC claims, "that improves the ratio and proves vaccines are better than natural immunity!"
Others have pointed out that the 90-179 day post-vaccination window seems cherry-picked to maximize favorable outcomes for the vaccine, as the Israeli and other studies have shown vaccine efficacy drops off significantly after that period. And others have pointed out the tiny sample size of recovered people who were hospitalized and tested positive (i.e. it's both extremely rare for natural immunity to fail, and it's bad science to try to draw conclusions!). And Thomas Massie points out that they are counting “long Covid” as re-infections which might very well explain most of the cases in the study!
This is obviously a politically ordered result to support Biden's vaccine mandate push. The fact that they couldn't come up with a supportable conclusion is telling.
UPDATE 1/20/22: The CDC now admits the exact opposite of its absurd claim.
We've noted before that a bunch of economic trends turned bad when Nixon closed the gold window and we launched into the current pure fiat experiment: commodity volatility, labor share of productivity gains, wealth inequality, etc.
Here's another one courtesy of Alex Tabarrok at Marginal Revolution:
In Launching the Innovation Renaissance I said that “If total factor productivity had continued to grow at its 1957 to 1973 rate then we today would be living in the world of 2076 rather than in the world of 2014.” Sadly, the future is continuing to recede. Consider the graph below. If growth had continued at the rate expected by the CBO in 2005 then we today would be living in the world of 2037 rather than in the world of 2021. (n.b. I am eyeballing.)
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