WC Varones

Don't lend your hand to raise no flag atop no ship of fools

Devaluation bandwagon: get on board!

Two weeks ago, I opined that devaluation is the only way out of the economic disaster that the Fed has created.

Yesterday, Jesse's Cafe linked, largely approvingly, an Institutional Risk Analyst piece by Chris Whalen interviewing Lee Quaintance (of QB Asset Management, formerly of Goldman Sachs, CSFB, DLJ) that argues the same thing.

To us, there is no "double dip" in the economy. We never recovered from the first decline in aggregate demand. Forget the bogus inflation and GDP statistics coming from Washington. Talk to your neighbors and family, the people in the community who own businesses. Ask them how their revenues for 1H 2010 are doing YOY...

In response to mounting concerns about deflation, news reports are filled with speculation that the Federal Reserve System will "ease" monetary policy further, an interesting idea given that interest rates already are at zero. The concept of further quantitative easing, as we understand it, would be for the Fed to purchase more securities from the Wall Street banks and hope -- repeat hope -- that a few pennies trickle down to the real economy.

[...]

Quaintance: You want organic employment growth? Lower the relative price of other factors of production. Boosting asset prices unilaterally while wage rates remain relatively stagnant is a recipe for unemployment. This is just common sense and it's what we're seeing today. The system yearns for more money, not more credit.

The IRA: Yes, their operating costs are rising but selling prices are compressed [...] consumers and small businesses who do not do business with JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs are the big losers in the fiat system. You must be smart enough to surf the waves of inflation, not just swim with the tide, and that makes us all speculators. (It is really the arbitrariness of the money that is a root cause, and the creation of a monopolization of credit under an incompetent/corrupt Federal Reserve - Jesse)

Quaintance: Agreed. In the end, credit inflation historically leads to asset inflation while base money inflation leads to wage and basic goods/consumables inflation. No matter how you slice it, the ratio of outstanding global debts to global base money is irreconcilable. This is a mathematical tautology. From this imbalance flow many of the imbalances you cite, in my mind. Chris, as I said, we think this is as simple a problem as too little "money" in existence attempting to service and ultimately reconcile too much debt.

Read the whole thing. It's remarkably consisent with the view I put forward, but much more articulate and well-developed.

Devaluation: catch the fever!

3 comments:

angryfutureexpat said...

Catch the fever!

AFEP and WC Varones - disagree about plenty, but always ahead of the curve where it matters.

Great find, great post.

W.C. Varones said...

On what could we possibly disagree, AFEP?

I agree with just about everything I've read on your site.

Could it be the Teabagger thing? Universities and the media have conditioned a lot of otherwise rational people to have contempt for conservatives (Old Zeke being a prime example), but I think if we sat down for a beer we'd agree on just about everything.

Waiting eagerly for your next post,

W.C.

angryfutureexpat said...

Heh, I think my fondness for the welfare state and socialized medicine would be our main point of disagreement.

Outside of that, we seem to see eye to eye on most things - I've even written good things about the Tea Party!

If life brings me to SoCal, I'll be sure to send an email (really!).

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