Bill Gross had a great sound bite at Forbes' annual investing roundtable:I don't know if the U.S. has reached a desperate point, but it is employing instruments and vehicles and policies that smack of desperation. We are not looking at a default here, but at years of accelerating inflation, which basically robs investors and labor of their real wages and earnings. We are looking at a currency that almost certainly will depreciate relative to other, stronger currencies in developing countries that have lower levels of debt and higher growth potential. And, on the short end of the yield curve, we are looking at creditors receiving negative real interest rates for a long, long time. That, in effect, is a default. Ultimately creditors and investors are at the behest of a central bank and policymakers that will rob them of their money.
Gross' statement came right after the following zinger from Marc Faber:Janet Yellen, vice chair of the Federal Reserve, said about a year ago that if it were possible to push interest rates into negative territory, she would vote for that. This is a very important statement because it implies that the Fed will keep real interest rates negative as far as the eye can see. Negative real rates amount to expropriation and destroy one function of money: to be a store of value and a unit of account. If you measure the stock market not in dollars but gold, it is down 80% since 1999. I no longer regard the U.S. dollar as a valid unit of account. People shouldn't value their wealth in dollars because one day, in dollars, everyone will be a billionaire.
The dollar is still the most convenient medium of exchange. But it is absolutely not a store of wealth. Marc Faber has always had extreme views, but you don't get more mainstream than Bill Gross. And Bill Gross is telling you that dollars are for suckers. Those who haven't diversified out of dollars have been warned.
I like Faber. He's got history on his side too.
Indeed. I didn't mean to use the term "extreme" disparagingly. Sometimes the extreme views are the most accurate.
Faber is great. I just meant that he has long been an outsider and a doomer, and now the consummate insider Bill Gross has joined him.
What have I been saying for years? That Bill Gross has finallly acknowledged the obvious may be important. Argentina, with 10-30% annual inflation rates, here we come?
Post a Comment