Futures just started trading on the CME on the Case-Shiller house price indices, and they are not pointing to a soft landing.
A 27.6% price drop over the next five years in San Francisco. A 31.7% drop in Miami. Roughly 20% drops in most other big cities.
If wages and rents keep up with inflation over the next five years, those 20% to 30% price drops might make home prices almost reasonable again. House prices at 3x income and PITI = rent? What a wonderful world.
How are you feeling now, Alfonso Rey?
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