7.20.2005

2008: Democratic nomination

Odds for the Democtratic Presidential nomination, calculated from the mid-point of the bid/ask spread on Tradesports this morning:



ContenderOdds
Hillary Clinton1.1 : 1
Mark Warner8.1 : 1
Joe Biden8.2 : 1
John Edwards15.5 : 1
Al Gore15.8 : 1
Evan Bayh15.9 : 1
John Kerry28 : 1
Bill Richardson 28.9 : 1
Tom Vilsack33.5 : 1
Barack Obama42.5 : 1
Jon Corzine43.4 : 1
Russ Feingold56.1 : 1
Wesley Clark59.6 : 1
Phil Bredesen61.5 : 1
Howard Dean89.9 : 1
Brian Schweitzer132.3 : 1
Ed Rendell180.8 : 1
Mike Easley221.2 : 1
Colin Powell665.7 : 1
Chris Dodd665.7 : 1
Pat Leahy999 : 1
Harold Ford999 : 1
Joseph Lieberman999 : 1


The Democrats are slight (51/48) favorites to win the election, so odds of winning the presidency would be roughly double the odds listed (without factoring in the issue that some Democrats would be more likely to win the general election than others).

Note for budding arbitrageurs: There is a structural imbalance in the market, with the totals adding up to more than 100%, meaning that buyers are over-enthusiastically bidding on their favorite candidates, and not enough sellers are there to meet them. Free money alert: short every candidate in proportion to his/her odds, and you will make a slight profit -- or a monster profit if an unlisted dark horse wins!

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