| Contender | Odds |
| Hillary Clinton | 1.1 : 1 |
| Mark Warner | 8.1 : 1 |
| Joe Biden | 8.2 : 1 |
| John Edwards | 15.5 : 1 |
| Al Gore | 15.8 : 1 |
| Evan Bayh | 15.9 : 1 |
| John Kerry | 28 : 1 |
| Bill Richardson | 28.9 : 1 |
| Tom Vilsack | 33.5 : 1 |
| Barack Obama | 42.5 : 1 |
| Jon Corzine | 43.4 : 1 |
| Russ Feingold | 56.1 : 1 |
| Wesley Clark | 59.6 : 1 |
| Phil Bredesen | 61.5 : 1 |
| Howard Dean | 89.9 : 1 |
| Brian Schweitzer | 132.3 : 1 |
| Ed Rendell | 180.8 : 1 |
| Mike Easley | 221.2 : 1 |
| Colin Powell | 665.7 : 1 |
| Chris Dodd | 665.7 : 1 |
| Pat Leahy | 999 : 1 |
| Harold Ford | 999 : 1 |
| Joseph Lieberman | 999 : 1 |
The Democrats are slight (51/48) favorites to win the election, so odds of winning the presidency would be roughly double the odds listed (without factoring in the issue that some Democrats would be more likely to win the general election than others).
Note for budding arbitrageurs: There is a structural imbalance in the market, with the totals adding up to more than 100%, meaning that buyers are over-enthusiastically bidding on their favorite candidates, and not enough sellers are there to meet them. Free money alert: short every candidate in proportion to his/her odds, and you will make a slight profit -- or a monster profit if an unlisted dark horse wins!
No comments:
Post a Comment