Game Theory: Leucadia

Here is the Redfin search for 3+ bedroom homes under $1 million in Leucadia, an eclectic North County beach town.

The green houses are houses for sale; the blue houses are house that have sold in the past six months. What, you don't see any blue houses?

That's right. Eight houses for sale in this area, and nothing sold in over 6 months. In fact, if you raise the price on your Redfin screen, you'll find several more listings: glue-sniffers trying to sell for more than a million, but still no sales.

But what really interested me about this picture is the cluster of five houses for sale within a stone's throw of each other on Sanford Street and Raintree Drive. And all within $70,000 in price. What do you do if you are one of these sellers and you actually need to sell? Current pricing is obviously not working. The first sale is probably the best -- go to $799,000 and beat your neighbors to the buyers.

These places in Leucadia are currently the best deals west of the freeway from La Jolla to Carlsbad, in my opinion. The fact that these places aren't selling is a very bad sign for sellers holding out for far more in Del Mar, Solana Beach, and Encinitas.

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