California tax revenues surge!

I just got the new budget update from Johnny Chiang, and to my great surprise:

Total General Fund revenues were up $132 million (1.1%) from the 2009-10 May Revision estimates.

Green shoots!!!

But what's this?

A surge in corporate tax payments made to avoid a new penalty bolstered State receipts for the second month in a row. Total General Fund revenues were up $132 million (1.1%) from the 2009-10 May Revision estimates.

Corporate tax payments were $1.31 billion above (41.2%) estimates. Personal income taxes were $987 million below estimates (-18.0%), and sales taxes lagged by $154 million (-5.8%).

Compared to June 2008, General Fund revenue in June was up $1.67 billion (15.4%), again driven by corporate payments related to the new penalty. The total for the three largest taxes was above 2008 levels by $1.45 billion (14.5%). Corporate taxes beat last June’s totals by $2.67 billion (146.3%), but sales taxes in June were down $295 million (-10.6%), and personal income taxes were down $918 million (-16.9%) in a month-to-month comparison to June 2008.

So we got a one-time boost from corporations trying to avoid penalties (some of which may in fact have to be refunded as there are likely overpayments in there), but California's recurring revenue streams are plummeting and are already far worse than the May revised estimates.