12.12.2007

WSJ: Bernanke and Bush are no Volcker and Reagan

We need tax cuts, not printing presses and helicopters. Echoing what I said in August, the Journal opines:

In any case, it isn't at all clear that more liquidity is the solution to what is fundamentally a solvency problem. The world isn't suffering from a dearth of dollars, but rather from the fact that mortgage and real-estate assets are worth much less than banks and homeowners once thought.

[...]

Even if you expect a recession, relying on the Fed as savior is a mistake. Monetary policy is only one economic policy lever, and it has to be used with care. The other, better tool is fiscal policy -- specifically a tax cut. On present Washington course, we are falling back into the 1970s' policy mix of easy money amid tax increases. Whenever the economy slowed in the 1970s, everyone clamored for the Fed to ease. The result was ever shorter recoveries amid steadily rising prices.

The better policy mix is the one implemented by Ronald Reagan and Paul Volcker that broke stagflation in the 1980s. The Fed restored dollar credibility and avoided asset bubbles, while tax cuts spurred incentives to work and invest. Even on Keynesian grounds, a tax cut now makes sense if you're worried that the housing recession will slow consumer spending. An across the board tax cut on marginal personal and corporate income tax rates would also attract capital from around the world, increase the demand for dollars, and thus make the Fed's job easier.

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