Why the U.S. is not Japan

Japan has seemed to me for some time to be a pretty good model of where the U.S. might be heading. 20 years after the peak, Japan's stock market is still down 70% and property values are down by similarly horrifying amounts.

Given this Japanese roadmap, who on earth would buy overpriced California real estate just a few years into the U.S. bust?

Prompted by an e-mail exchange with the always wise and friendly Patrick of Patrick.net, I found this:

Japan deficit may expand to 2% of GDP by 2012

Two percent??? Is that a typo? We are running deficits around 10% of GDP (thank you Obama $787 billion porkulus that created or saved approximately zero jobs), with not even a pipe dream of ever getting the deficit below high single digits even 10 or more years out! Granted, the Japan article is talking about primary deficits (meaning excluding interest costs), but in the U.S. interest makes up only a couple hundred billion out of a $1.4 trillion deficit.

Japan isn't the roadmap. Zimbabwe is.


Negocios Loucos said...

Ya know Patrick, I don't know how the exchange went down but I'm siding with you. And it's not just because I can't afford anything that isn't in the Sacramento Delta, it's because I feel that Cali is on a path to destruction. So while I praise the WC for taking the plunge, and providing me a man-cave anytime I came and visit, I feel that economically it's not something I'd consider.

W.C. Varones said...

Cali gets a federal bailout. It's far easier to run the printing presses than let your biggest state collapse.

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